Inflation fear/optimism vs global growth concerns… that is the headline at the moment–not just for the domestic bond market, but for the entire global market in general. EU and US inflation data (on May 31st and June 10th respectively) led 3 weeks of steep selling ahead of the June 15th Fed announcement. Since then, bonds have moved quickly to erase the selling spree.
Oversold technicals were only part of the justification. Most of it has to do with an ongoing supply of lackluster econ data and multiple indications of a tamer inflation environment. We’ll get clarity perhaps some clarity in this week’s Fed Minutes, but in a nice change of pace, markets may be willing to pay more attention to Friday’s jobs data than recent norms would suggest–especially the wage growth numbers.
Here’s how the overnight session unfolded with respect to the
In the bigger-picture technical landscape, the case for caution comes from simple momentum indicators such as the MACD forest seen the chart below. In not so many words, it suggests that the recent rally has already covered enough ground to meet some technical resistance regardless of data.
One additional point of order: there is no ADP Employment release this week. Here’s why: https://mediacenter.adp.com/2022-06-30-New-ADP-National-Employment-Report-to-Launch-Late-Summer-2022
Source: Mortgage News Daily