COVID Concerns Drive Rates Lower, Refi Volume Rises

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Refinancing continues to support mortgage application activity while purchase applications continued to weaken during the week ended July 23. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior week and the unadjusted index was up 6 percent. The Refinance Index rose by 9 percent although it was down 10 percent from its level the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 67.2 percent of total applications from 64.9 percent the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent and unadjusted Purchase Index ticked down 1 percent compared with the previous week. The latter was 18 percent lower than the…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: It's Not About What The Fed Actually Does

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Like 8 other Wednesdays each year, today brings a healthy dose of volatility risk from the Fed Announcement and press conference (note: this is one of the four that is NOT accompanied by "the dots," which tend to add even more volatility). If the bond market has any strong reaction to the Fed, it won't be due to any changes in policy. Those aren't even on the table for this meeting. Rather, investors are simply seeking to refine their understanding of the Fed's covid/econ/tapering reaction functions. If the Fed can provide such a thing, it could easily account for a break outside the recently narrow range in longer-term bonds. That narrow range is a product of competing forces to some extent, with global markets (EU/China) pulling yields lower and US equities suggesting…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

AE Jobs; Processing, Pricing, Retention, Sales Tools; Ginnie, FHA, VA Changes

Posted To: Pipeline Press

I didn’t sign up for a 401k. I can’t run that far. Understanding numbers is important, as is accurately reporting them. For example, yesterday I mistakenly noted that the TMBA’s Annual Convention was August 29-30 when it’s actually the August 29-31. Borrowers aren’t the only ones refinancing. Are you going to take a cruise soon? Me neither, but Carnival Cruise Lines just issued (sold) some debt to investors with a coupon of 4 percent to pay off debt it issued last year at 11.5 percent . Speaking of refinancing, and loan volume in general, traders estimate total daily origination supply is running $5-7 billion. On the demand side of the equation, through its trading desk in New York, the Federal Reserve is buying $4-6 billion per day of Agency MBS. You don’t…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Homeownership Rates Fall Across the Board

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The U.S. Census Bureau says the nation’s Homeownership Rate was at 65.4 percent in the second quarter of 2021. This is down from both the previous quarter’s 65.6 percent , and a year earlier when it was reported at 67.9 percent. However, the Bureau cautions,” When interpreting these estimates and comparing with prior quarters and years, data users should understand and consider changes in data collection operations that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, data users should apply caution when interpreting estimates of year-to-year changes because the extent of changes in data collection operations may differ across time.” The rate peaked in the first quarter of 2005 at 69.1 percent, then began a slow decline, bottoming out in the second quarter of 2016 at 62.9 percent. Since…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Home Price Gains "Running out of Superlatives," Highest Appreciation on Record

Posted To: MND NewsWire

May set yet more records for price increases. Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agencies (FHFA) purchase only House Price Index (HPI) reported the highest annual rates of appreciation in their respective records. The Case-Shiller National Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported 16.6 percent year-over-year growth in May , up from 14.8 percent in April, its 12 th straight month of accelerating gains and the highest annual increase on record. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 16.4 percent compared to 14.5 percent the previous month and the 20-City Composite rose 17.0 percent, a 2 percentage point increase from the April rate. Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the highest annual gains…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MLO Jobs; Sec. Mktg., Retention, Workflow, Doctor, Automation Programs; Upcoming Events and Conferences

Posted To: Pipeline Press

With Simone Biles injury at the Olympics, let’s shift our attention to lending & housing. Have you ever asked someone, especially a politician, for the definition of “affordable housing”? Maybe the better riddle is, “How is affordable housing like pornography? You’ll know it when you see it.” (See Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s quote from 1964.) I’m sure lending on “affordable housing” (housing units that are affordable by those whose income is below the median household income) will be a topic at most of the upcoming in-person conferences in August, September, and October. Yes, it’s “full speed ahead” in attendance at events like the California MBA’s Western Secondary and its attendee list which…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: Overseas Markets Help Bonds Take Strong Stance

Posted To: MBS Commentary

After having gained so much over the past 4 months (not to mention the removal of the adverse market fee), and with a Fed announcement due out tomorrow afternoon, it wouldn't have been a surprise to see bonds take a more defensive stance overnight and this morning. Instead, 10yr yields are trying to fight through the 1.25% technical level (and they're largely winning) thanks to big weakness in Chinese equities and a strong bond market response in Europe. In the bigger picture, rising covid case counts continue to correlate quite well with the recent bond rally. The following chart shows a 7 day centered moving average of case counts (which is like a micro-seasonal adjustment for variations in reporting/testing between different days of the week). Today's key event in terms of volatility…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS RECAP: Slow Monday, But Late Warning Shots (Re-Send w/ New Video)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Slow Monday, But Late Warning Shots It was a slow trading day for the most part until the last 90 minutes. Until then, MBS and Treasuries were generally flat. As the day wound down, yields bumped up to the highs–right in line with the 1.295% technical level–and MBS coughed up a quick eighth of a point. That was enough for several lenders to reprice for the worse even though the weakness doesn't speak to any bigger picture issues. At worst, we could consider the late-day volatility to be a warning shot about bond trader defensiveness ahead of Wednesday's Fed announcement. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm New Home Sales -6.6% vs +3.0% f'cast, -7.8% prev Market Movement Recap 08:45 AM Stronger overnight. Yields fall in line with stock sell-off, bouncing in early…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

June New Home Sales Decline 6.6%

Posted To: MND NewsWire

In May, the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that the seasonally adjusted annual sales of newly constructed homes had fallen below 800,000 units for the first time in a year, to 769,000 units. In June things only got worse. The report from the two agencies today lowered the May rate to 724,000 and estimates June sales at 676,000 units. This is a 6.6 percent decline from the revised May figure and drops sales below those in June 2020 by 19.4 percent. Analysts had expected sales to improve. Those polled by Reuters, Econoday, and Trading Economics all had a consensus of 800,000 units. Trading Economics said this would have been a 3.5 percent monthly gain. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), based on their survey of mortgage subsidiaries of major home…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

White House Announces Expanded COVID Relief Options for Homeowners

Posted To: MND NewsWire

With the federal moratorium on mortgage foreclosures nearing an end, the White House has announced a series of steps to help homeowners who have suffered COVID-19 related financial hardships stay in their homes. Some 1.75 million homeowners (private sources put the number closer to 1.9 million) remain in forbearance programs with many now in the last three months of their 18 month eligibility. The White House previously extended the foreclosure moratorium for homeowners with government-backed mortgages to July 31 and the forbearance enrollment window through September 30, 2021 and provided up to three months of additional forbearance for certain borrowers. Over the course of the pandemic nearly 7.2 million households took advantage of forbearance. The relief announced on Friday is specific…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily