MBS RECAP: Super Slow Day; Still Waiting For Breakout

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Super Slow Day; Still Waiting For Breakout Whether it's the narrow range between 1.62 and 1.68% in 10yr yields or the wider 1.53-1.75%, bond watchers continue waiting for evidence of a breakout. It certainly didn't arrive today, and even if it did, the ultra low volume profile would argue against reading too much into it. Despite the broadly sideways trends, when put under a microscope, charts offer more examples of "higher lows" in bond yields than "lower highs." As such, those who are truly on a fence (with respect to lock/float strategy) might err on the side of caution until some contrary evidence comes along. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm NY Fed Manufacturing 24.3 vs 23.9 Homebuilder Confidence 83 vs 83 f'cast, 83 prev Market Movement…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

CoreLogic: Equity Growth Among Homeowners May Provide Significant Foreclosure Barrier

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Two companies have issued reports on the strong gains in homeowner equity. Not only is this an indication of building household wealth and the ability of the housing market to withstand some of the economic damage of the pandemic according to ATTOM Data Systems in its first quarter U.S Home Equity and Underwater Report, but the CoreLogic, in a blog entry, says the equity could help prevent widespread mortgage defaults and foreclosures as government pandemic support fades. ATTOM reports that 17.8 million U.S. homes were, in its words, “equity rich” in Q1. That is, the combined loan-to-value ratio (CLTV) of their mortgages was 50 percent or less. The 17.8 million homes represent 31.9 percent or one out of every three of the 55.8 million mortgaged homes in the U.S. This up from 30.2 percent in…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

More Than 1 Million Loans in Forbearance Scheduled to Expire in June

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The number of loans in active forbearance plans dropped by 2.7 percent last week. Black Knight says this continues a recent trend of strong improvements in the forbearance numbers in the early part of each month. The 61,000 loans that exited the program during the week ended May 11 leaves 2.16 million loans still in the various lender programs, 4.1 percent of all active mortgage loans. Last week’s program exits affected all loan types. GSE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) forbearance volumes declined by 13,000, 19,000 VA and FHA loans exited, and there was a 29,000 loan reduction in PLS/portfolio forbearances. This leaves 684,000 GSE loans, 881,000 VA and FHA loans, and 598,000 PLS portfolio loans in active plans. The company says there remain another 250,000 loans with May expiration dates and…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Builder Confidence Holds Steady in Face of Rising Costs

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said new home builders are not losing faith in the market for new homes despite their growing concerns over the price and availability of lumber and other building materials. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, a measure of builder confidence, was at 83 in May, the same level as in April. “Low interest rates are supporting housing affordability in a market where the cost of most materials is rising, ” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “In recent months, aggregate residential construction material costs were up 12 percent year-over-year, and our surveys suggest those costs are rising further. Some builders are slowing sales to manage their own supply-chains, which means growing affordability challenges for a market in critical need…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Corresp., Construction, Sales Jobs; Non-owner, POS Products; Customer Service Tips

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Here is a dab of trivia to start the week. There are only about 2,000 heart transplants every year in the United States. So, on average, that’s only about 2-3 per state per month. Help others and be an organ donor! Speaking of helping, people looking for a new job, or forced out of an old one, can post their resumes for free at Lender News. And employers can view them! Tools like that are useful when one sees headlines like, “U.S. banks could cut 200,000 jobs over post their resumes for free at Lender News . And employers can view them! Tools like that are useful when one sees headlines like, “U.S. banks could cut 200,000 jobs over the next decade ” through efficiency, attrition, and robots/technology . Speaking of which, if your child had heart problems, would you want…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: Flatter Than Flat as Bonds Make Case For Consolidation

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Q4, 2020 was all about yields moving higher at a gradual pace. Same story for Q1, 2021, but at a much quicker pace. If Q2, 2021 has a them, it's been the consolidation of the past 2 quarters of weakness. So far, this consolidation pattern has been perfectly flat with the only potential exception being the first hour of trade following the most recent NFP number. In fact, it's flatter than flat. That's not casual hyperbole, but rather, a reference to the lower highs and higher lows converging on the same central point of gravity (1.62% in this case). The week ahead consists primarily of housing-related data with Friday's Existing Home Sales release arguably standing as the headliner (followed closely by new construction numbers on Tuesday). In the absence of higher-consequence…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Rates Remain Resilient After Inflation Scare

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

The 70’s and 80’s brought unforgettable economic lessons about inflation. Since then, certain market participants have been watching inflation like hawks , even when they didn’t need to. After the start of the pandemic, the massive amount of fiscal stimulus (covid relief bill) and monetary accommodation from the Fed (bond buying and rate cuts) had inflation hawks on high alert . Fed speakers have been consistent in their response: yes , inflation was likely to spike this spring for a variety of reasons, but it wouldn’t necessarily be evidence of a sustainable shift. Inflation can be measured in a few ways, but the most basic and most popular is via price indices published by the government. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the two dominant forces in that regard and this week brought…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS RECAP: Bonds Hold Their Ground After Weaker Data

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Weaker Retail Sales Casts Vote For Range-Holding Wednesday's CPI data was akin to some passionate political orator making a case for the country to go to war against low rates. Yesterday's 30yr bond auction stepped in with a "not so fast" counterpoint, and now today's Retail Sales data gives us hope that cooler heads will prevail. Bottom line, as of this morning mid-week drama looks to have given way to the same old trading range that's been intact since April 7th. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm Retail Sales 0.0 vs 1.0 f'cast, 10.7 prev Consumer Sentiment 82.8 vs 90.4 f'cast, 88.3 prev inflation expectations (1y) 4.6 vs 3.4 prev (5y) 3.1 vs 2.7 prev Market Movement Recap 08:52 AM Flat in Asia. Modestly stronger in Europe, and now flat …(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Underwriting, MLO Jobs; DPA, Non-QM, Customer Service Tools; Misc. Company News Indicates Trends

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Let me start Friday with an apology… to Alaska. (I thought I saw an eye doctor on an Alaskan island, but it turned out to be an optical Aleutian.) Julie Moore (with Alaska USA Federal Credit Union) pointed out that, given my note yesterday about Jacksonville, FL being the largest city in the U.S., “While Jacksonville might be the largest city by geographic area in the contiguous United States, it is actually the fifth largest city in the entire United States. The first four largest cities, by geographic area in square miles are: Sitka, 4,811, Juneau, 3,254, Wrangell, 3,462, and Anchorage, 1,961. Thank you, Julie! (Editor’s note: Alaska is more than twice the size of Texas.) Something else to pay attention to is what lenders are thinking as we head into the summer, which is…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: Weaker Retail Sales Casts Vote For Range-Holding

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Wednesday's CPI data was akin to some passionate political orator making a case for the country to go to war against low rates. Yesterday's 30yr bond auction stepped in with a "not so fast" counterpoint, and now today's Retail Sales data (0.0 vs 1.0 forecast) gives us hope that cooler heads will prevail. Bottom line, as of this morning mid-week drama looks to have given way to the same old trading range that's been intact since April 7th. Specifically, a ceiling near 1.68% in 10yr yields is what we're hoping to hold. The morning's other data is less significant from a potential market movement potential standpoint, but isn't completely irrelevant. In fact, we know the Fed is keeping an eye on consumer inflation expectations and the 10am Consumer Sentiment…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily