MBS RECAP: Sideways to Start The Week, But That's Still a Victory

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Sideways to Start The Week, But That's Still a Victory Last Friday's jobs report sparked a reasonably big bond rally. In terms of 10yr yields it was one of the best days in weeks, if not months (depending on whether we're measuring from the previous close or the opening trade of any given day). This created a risk that traders would seize the gains as a sort of selling opportunity–especially with yields bouncing almost perfectly at the 1.56% technical level. While we did see a bit of weakness today, it was almost too small to count. That's a victory considering Friday's gains, but volume and volatility were so low that we arguably haven't seen a representative sample of traders show up for the week. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm Market Movement…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Lack of Homes for Sale Could Eventually Curb Affordability Constraints

Posted To: MND NewsWire

April price gains may have set a record for setting records and Black Knight, in its Mortgage Monitor for the month, runs them down. The annual rate of price increases , 14.8 percent, was the highest in the company’s records dating back to the mid-1990s. Single-family prices rose even higher, 15.6 percent. Condo gains were significantly more restrained at 10 percent. April marked the 17th straight month of home price gains and they continue to accelerate sharply even as affordability is growing tight. Black Knight says before 2021 the largest single month increase was 1.53 percent in April 2004 and pre-2021 month-over-month appreciation exceeded 1.5 percent only two additional times in Black Knight’s records (May 2004, and April 2005.) Price increases have broken through that barrier in each…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Homebuying Sentiment Hits Another Low, Even as Incomes Rise

Posted To: MND NewsWire

While consumers’ comfort with their financial situation appears to be improving, their pessimism about homebuying is also growing. Fannie Mae says while its Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) did tick up by 1.0 point in May to 80.0, the component reflecting responses about whether it is a good time to buy fell to a second consecutive all-time low. The HPSI reflects answers to some questions from the monthly National Housing Survey including the good time to buy as well as a comparable query about selling. Only 35 percent of respondents said it is a good time to buy in May, down from 53 percent in March. The net positive answers (yes responses minus no responses) to the question fell to a negative 20 percent, down 34 points year-over-year. Positive answers to the question about selling rose…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Technology Continues to Reduce Closing Times

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The share of refinances originated during a month dropped below 60 percent in April for the first time since September 2020. ICE Mortgage Technology, in its Origination Insight Report for the month, put the share at 56 percent, down from 63 percent the following month. The corresponding increase in purchase loans, 43 percent, was the highest since last August. The report also notes a further decline in the average time to close all loans to 51 days . It was the fourth consecutive decrease since January when closing time averaged 58 days. The 1 day decline was due to a 2 day shortening of the purchase loan timeline to 49 days, offset by refinancing time which ticked up 1 day to 52. “The decrease in average time to close is not surprising, given the increase we have observed in the adoption of…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

AE, MLO, Ops Jobs; VOA, Intelligence, Appraisal, Landing Page Tools; Events and Training in June and into July

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Time is flying, and the months click by. We’re approaching the Summer Solstice. (Here in Sitka, AK, the official sunrise is around 4AM and it sets around 10PM.) As a lender, did you add to your coffers in the first quarter? If not, or if you only broke even, perhaps it is time for a change. As expected, for most lender, their pipelines and margins rolled into 2021. Independent mortgage bankers made $3,361 on each loan in the first quarter of 2021, which was the best first quarter on record. In fact, net production profits reached their highest level for any first quarter since the inception of MBA’s report in 2008. To balance out that good news, available housing inventory continues to disappoint, especially in April, according to research by Zillow . Inventory fell 1.4% compared…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Week Ahead: Slow Summertime Monday (Let's Hope)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Summertime Mondays–especially those without any significant calendar events–have a tendency to be lighter than normal in terms of volume and volatility. That's holding true so far today, and it would be a victory if it continues to hold true considering Friday's solid post-NFP gains. But even then, yields are still well inside the broader sideways range. That means we're still waiting for some bullish or bearish impulse to challenge the boundaries of the "intermission" range that's been intact for nearly 3 months now. "Slow and sideways" will be a risk throughout the week as the calendar offers little of consequence until Wednesday afternoon at the earliest (10yr Treasury auction). The week's only big ticket economic report is the Consumer Price Index…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

What This Week's Jobs Report Means For Rates

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

All eyes were on the big jobs report this week. Traders were anxious to see if it would be strong enough to accelerate the timeline for key policy changes that would greatly impact rates. The bond market and indeed many homeowners remember 2013’s taper tantrum all too well. For those who need a refresher, the taper tantrum occurred after the Fed began tapering the bond purchases that had been holding interest rates down. Rates shot up at one of the fastest paces in history. With the Fed still buying $120 bln per month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds since the start of the pandemic, traders know there will eventually be another reckoning . Fed speakers have been clear in saying they’ll provide ample warning this time around, but no one wants to be late to that party! So traders are perpetually…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS RECAP: Locking vs Floating After Today's Jobs Report

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Locking vs Floating After Today's Jobs Report NFP missed the mark and bonds ultimately rallied today. That rally sets up a solid lock opportunity (either "today" or "soon," depending on your risk tolerance) as we expect to be right back in this position in the near future? What position is that? The one where markets are wondering if we're about to get econ data that will accelerate the Fed's tapering conversation. Today's jobs data says "not yet." That's good for rates in the short term, but it creates bigger risks in the coming weeks (perhaps days). Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm Nonfarm Payrolls 559k vs 650k f'cast, 278k prev Unemployment Rate 5.8 vs 5.9 f'cast Participation Rate -0.1 (offsets U/E decline) Market…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Forbearances Tumble Due to May Expirations

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The number of loans in forbearance declined sharply over the course of the past week. Black Knight said the number of homeowners exiting their plans jumped to the highest level in four weeks due to end-of-May expirations. There were also noticeable declines in the number of borrowers returning to the program as well as new participants. All told, the number of forbearances dropped by 71,000 or 3.2 percent over the week ended June 1. This leaves 2.12 million loans, 4.0 percent of the estimated 53 million active mortgages, in the various plans. GSE (Fannie Mae and Freddie May) forbearances fell by 26,000 and FHA/VA loans by 28,000. Portfolio and private label security (PLS) loans declined by 17,000. Black Knight says 65,000 loans with scheduled May expirations remain await review decisions so…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Servicing, Ops, MLO Jobs; Purchase, Appraisal, PMI, Retention Tools; Investors React to Agency Changes

Posted To: Pipeline Press

A while back I made an appointment at a new doctor and under, “What do you wish to be called?” I wrote, “The Chosen One.” Wednesday, I heard the receptionist say, “Please let the doctor know that The Chosen One is here.” They’ve been using it this whole time. Every generation, to one degree or another, believe that they are The Chosen Ones, but people in their 20s and 30s are finding out that it’s unusually tough out there to buy a home. And as Fannie and Freddie shift their footprint (more news below), savvy MLOs know that down payment programs may help homebuyers get into a house sooner than they think. In the article Is down payment assistance for everyone? Down Payment Resource discusses a few basic requirements homebuyers should keep in mind…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily