Survey Says: Great Time to Buy a Home, Or Sell!

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Results of a survey by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released today echo the findings from the most recent National Housing Survey (NHS) conducted by Fannie Mae – Americans think this is a great time to buy a home. Sixty-three percent of respondents to NAR’s fourth quarter Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey expressed that opinion (59 percent told NHS pollsters this.) Further, 33 percent of respondents told NAR they strongly believe this. Even more Americans think it is a good time to sell , nearly three-quarters (74 percent) said so. Both buying and selling sentiments were unchanged from the third quarter survey. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said these positive sentiments can be linked to the strong job market and favorable economic conditions. “The…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Are Just About Done Reacting to Iran. What Next?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The bond market and many other markets are still in the process of retracing the steps they took to price-in the risk of a new war in the Middle East. Granted, that risk wasn't exactly full blown, but it was clearly in control of pretty much everything on Tuesday night when Iran attacked 2 air bases in Iraq. The absence of immediate response from the US on Tuesday combined with Trump's speech yesterday to drastically de-escalate the situation (despite ongoing snippets of Iranian rhetoric) and markets have responded accordingly. Even before the de-escalation, the very best the bond market could do was to make it to levels that were STILL slightly higher in yield than the last prominent low in early December. In turn, those early December yields were also just a hair higher than the low…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Sales Jobs; Broker, Marketing, Secondary Products; Various Vendor News

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Nobody, that I recall, predicted that 2019 would be a banner year for mortgage originators. And how about that stock market! My 401k’s balance certainly improved in 2019, yet a new report from the National Bureau of Economic Research says the cost of the trade war has been paid almost entirely by American businesses and consumers, not China . Experts and economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Columbia University and Princeton said analysis of tax levies found “approximately 100 percent” of import taxes fell on Americans , despite the President’s assertion the country was “taxing the hell out of China.” Some of the implemented tariffs on Chinese goods are as high as 25 percent. We can certainly expect the rhetoric to increase. And we still have…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS RECAP: Bonds Correct Into Weaker Territory As War Risk Dies Down

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Top and bottom line: war is good for bonds/rates. The risk of war had increased after last week's US attack on the Iranian general and flared further overnight after the Iranian attack on air bases in Baghdad. By not inflicting any US casualties, the attacks allowed Iran to have their retaliation (something that had been a point of uncertainty) without starting a war. Trump confirmed as much today. Thus, paradoxically , the seemingly significant missile attacks last night actually paved the way for the most significant de-escalation so far. Markets are trading it accordingly with Treasuries much weaker on the day, stocks much stronger, and MBS lagging the Treasury move. Economic data was glossed over and the afternoon's 10yr Treasury auction didn't have much of an impact despite…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Mortgage Rates Under Pressure After Iran Deescalation

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved higher today after spending several recent days in line with the lowest levels in more than a month. Underlying bond markets have been taking their biggest cues from geopolitical developments surrounding US/Iran tensions. Those came to a head last night after Iran attacked two air bases in Iraq where US troops are stationed. The average opinion shared on the internet or TV news suggested a likelihood that this meant war. War would be good for rates and bad for stocks. Markets reacted accordingly–at least for a few hours. Things changed when we learned Trump would not address the nation until the morning and that there were no US casualties (seen as the deciding factor in US military retaliation). In today’s speech, Trump effectively deescalated the situation and communications…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

November Home Prices Post Highest Gains in 10 Months

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The pace of home price increases picked up in November, increasing by 3.7 percent on a year-over-year basis, up from 3.5 percent in October . CoreLogic said its Home Price Index (HPI) posted a monthly gain of 0.5 percent, a substantial uptick from the 0.2 percent gain the prior month. The index, which covers both market and distressed sales, hit a recent peak of 6.62 percent in April 2018 before beginning a steady slowdown. CoreLogic’s chief economist Frank Nothaft said, “The latest U.S. index shows that the slowdown in home prices we saw in early 2019 ended by late summer. Growth in the U.S. index quickened in November and posted the largest 12-month gain since February. The decline in mortgage rates, down more than one percentage point for fixed-rate loans from November 2018, has supported…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Pricing, Broker, Sales Products; Missiles, Oil, Tariffs, and Brexit and Their Effect on Mortgage rates

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Hey, I want to buy my own house without the “nuisances” of a large down payment, difficult credit standards, massive debt, or long-term commitments. Out of California comes Fleq , which tells me that I can do exactly that. All I have to do is lease the property and buy/share my equity through an “Alliance.” Shared equity, rent to own, and leasing aren’t new concepts, but it is always interesting to see how these companies do, and what consumers think. (Speaking of consumers and their reviews, here’s the latest in settlement news: a Northern California lender settling with the FTC regarding allegations of posting personal information on borrowers that gave bad reviews.) Tariffs aren’t new either, nor are trade problems and deficits, and geopolitical…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: Shockingly, Bonds Face Uphill Battle Today

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Last night was intense to say the least. Bonds surged to the best levels in more than a month, and were close to the best levels in nearly 3 months after Iran attacked several air bases in Iraq. In the heat of the moment, the spectacular and ugly machine that is the collective consciousness of digital communication decided "this means war!" Had that sentiment been accurate, 10yr yields would be in the 1.6's at least. As it stands, there is no war. The party line is that, while the military targets can be referred to as "US assets" or as housing US troops, there were not any US casualties. News media and internet 'experts' seemed to magically conclude VERY early in the night that Trump's secret line in the sand for retaliation was the presence of US casualties…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Homebuying Sentiment Up Sharply from 2018

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) finished out the year with little change from November to December, but with a strong increase over the December 2018 version. Three HPSI components were up in December but those gains were offset by losses in the other three resulting in only an 0.2 percent uptick for the month to a reading of 91.7. The largest month-over-month gain was in the net share of those who expect home prices to rise over the next 12 months . The percentage of Americans holding that sentiment increased from 44 percent to 50 percent while 10 percent expect a decline, the same as in November. This left the net of those expecting increases 6 points higher points at 40 percent. The net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months fell…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Mortgage Applications Start Year on Positive Note

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Mortgage Banker Association’s (MBA’s) offices were closed over the two-week holiday period. The data in this week’s report on mortgage applications activity is compared with that from the last published report covering the week ended December 20. MBA’s Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume was down 1.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the previous report. On an unadjusted basis, the Index was 22 percent lower. The Refinance Index was down 8 percent from the last report while remaining elevated from the same week a year earlier by 74 percent . The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent although it was down 14 percent on an unadjusted basis from the December 20 period. Purchase applications were 2 percent higher than the same…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily