Who's Lying About The Housing Market?

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

The housing market is heating and cooling at the same time, depending on the data in question. Who’s telling the truth? Actually, maybe everyone… According to home price appreciation, the market is on fire . FHFA and Case Shiller (2 of the main home price reports we follow–both updated this week) differ slightly in their historical measurements, but both are in agreement that year-over-year price gains are as high as they’ve been in a LONG time (record highs for FHFA). Things are moving in the other direction for home sales. This week’s Pending Home Sales release showed a decline of more than 10% (back to pre-pandemic levels). So who’s lying? Is the housing market hot due to surging prices or is it cooling off based on declining sales? The two can actually coexist due to INVENTORY , or lack…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Forbearances Decline but CFPB Warns Servicers to Prepare for Default Surge

Posted To: MND NewsWire

While the number of mortgages in forbearance continues to fall, Black Knight said there was a 33,000 reduction over the last week and 172,000 homeowners have exited the various programs over the last month, 2.54 million borrowers remain in forbearance. This is 4.8 percent of all those with a mortgage. Now the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is alerting mortgage servicers to prepare for what may be a wave of avoidable foreclosures as forbearances come to an end in the fall and the current foreclosure moratoriums expire. While the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) and Ginnie Mae, which is responsible for VA and FHA loans, have provided several options for borrowers to pay back any past due mortgage payments that have accrued during the pandemic, many homeowners will need help from…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Residential Outlays Dominate Construction Spending

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Construction spending, public and private, was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.517 trillion in February. The U.S. Census Bureau said this was down 0.8 percent from the January rate of $1.529 trillion but was 5.3 percent higher than spending in February 2020. On a non-adjusted basis there was a total of $105.612 billion worth of construction put in place during the month, nearly half of which was spent in the residential sector. For the year-to-date (YTD) overall spending has totaled $213.204 billion, a 4.9 percent increase over the $203.215 billion spent during the first two months of 2020. Privately funded construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.166 trillion, down 0.5 percent month-over-month from $1.172 trillion in January. Spending was 7.1 percent above the…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Tech, MLO, AE, Non-QM, Ops Jobs; Non-Del, Servicing, Reno Products; Changes in Flood Insurance Ahead?

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Although today is not a Federal holiday, it certainly seems like it should be one. And not to be “Debbie Downer, it is hard to believe that we have two more months until the next Federal holiday. (Before I forget, can you do me a very quick favor? Please answer 1 yes/no question in a survey.) Sunday is Easter, and the press is reminding us that some public officials forecast that the pandemic would be over with by Easter of 2020. Nope. Most lenders and vendors are still working from home, and “work from home” (WFH) companies are now dealing with a scattered workforce, a portion of whom were hired during the pandemic. Here’s an article with tips on dealing with one of the WFH speedbumps: maintaining corporate culture . Speaking of being home, I was dealt a cruel blow…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: New Month, New Hope, But High Bar For Confirmation

Posted To: MBS Commentary

March's month/quarter-end trading got more credit than normal for moving markets in the past week or two. As such, it's fair to hope for April to bring a push back in the other direction. So far, so good this morning, but we'll need to see more gains tomorrow and probably even at the beginning of next week to confirm. One key reason for that is the early market closure tomorrow for Good Friday and the Easter holiday weekend. There is a risk that some of the gains today are being driven by traders exiting positions before liquidity gets tighter tomorrow. Still, a rally is a rally, and it gives us an opportunity to talk about what "confirmation of a friendly bounce" might look like. The most basic metric would simply be to cover a certain amount of ground. In that sense…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Recruiting, AE, MLO, Ops Jobs; Hedging, HELOC, Anti-Fraud Tools; CFPB Meeting Transcript; GSE's Bold Move

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Worried about it being April Fool’s Day? Don’t be. We’ll take care of you. Today’s podcast includes a discussion on extended locks, as well as an interview with millennial Megan Sinclair on her non-biased experience with the refinance process. Worried about rising rates? What, your company doesn’t do HELOCs or cash out refis? Here’s a story on rising rates from an industry perspective, although 3.25 percent shouldn’t kill your business. Worried about how Freddie Mac’s announcement yesterday on its new policy regarding 2 nd homes and investment properties? We knew it, along with other changes , was coming nearly three months ago. Capital markets folks agree that it is not that bad: Freddie will only purchase second homes and investment property loans…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Mortgage Rates Back Near Long-Term Highs

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today after failing to capitalize on a hopeful move in bond markets yesterday. Bonds–particularly mortgage-backed bonds–are directly responsible for most of the day-to-day movement in mortgage rates, and they’ve been losing ground all year. Like several days in the past few weeks, yesterday saw a promising bounce in the bond market. This created some hope that rates had found their ceiling when they hit the highest levels in more than a year 3 weeks ago. After today’s moderate increase, however, they’re dangerously close to those highs. As of early February, we’d spent nearly 2.5 months with the average 30yr fixed rate near 2.75% for top tier, conventional refis (2.625% or lower for purchases). Today, that rate is in the 3.375%-3.5% range for refinances…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS RECAP: Moderate Weakness But No Major Quarter-End Drama

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Month/Quarter-End Trading Refresher; More Stimulus Details Today is the last day of the month and quarter. That means more for financial markets than it does for many other sectors. While there is no hard and fast rule concerning timing, there is historically increased trading activity at the end of month (and quarter) as various types of money managers rebalance their portfolios or adjust their holdings to match underlying benchmarks. Read more about the Treasury/MBS specific month/quarter-end considerations HERE. In other news, Biden is expected to speak at 4:20pm ET today with more details on the infrastructure plan. This is late enough in the trading day that it's more of a consideration for tomorrow (and even then, most of the details have already trickled out). Econ Data / Events…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: Real Story on Feb/March Rate Spike: Stimulus vs Inflation

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today is the last day of the month and quarter. That means more for financial markets than it does for many other sectors. While there is no hard and fast rule concerning timing, there is historically increased trading activity at the end of month (and quarter) as various types of money managers rebalance their portfolios or adjust their holdings to match underlying benchmarks. Read more about the Treasury/MBS specific month/quarter-end considerations HERE . In other news, Biden is expected to speak at 4:20pm ET today with more details on the infrastructure plan. This is late enough in the trading day that it's more of a consideration for tomorrow (and even then, most of the details have already trickled out). In fact, it's fair to say that a good amount of the bond market weakness…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

FHA Will Keep Mortgage Insurance Fund Rates Stable

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The newly installed Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released her first quarterly report on the agency to Congress on Tuesday. A key point regarded the Federal Housing Administration’s Single Family Mutual Mortgage Insurance (MMI) Fund. Secretary Marcia L. Fudge said the fund has remained resilient despite the financial challenges faced by homeowners with FHA-insured mortgages in 2020 and the agency has no near-term plans to change MMI’s current premium pricing. She explained that the fund stands at more than $80 billion, still well above the 2 percent minimum capital reserve required. Through the pandemic, the FHA portfolio has experienced increased levels of seriously delinquent loans and a heightened level of loans in forbearance, but Fudge said HUD has…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily