Our recent analytical thesis runs the risk of being all dressed up with nowhere to go between now and the first full week of December. As such, things could get repetitive in the coming week although monotony could be broken by unexpected headlines (geopolitical flare-ups, political surprises, major corporate developments like huge layoffs at huge firms).
Monotony can also give the appearance of being broken simply because it will be a holiday week with lighter volume/liquidity–a combination that makes it easier for fewer trades to have a greater impact on trading levels. For today, markets are left mainly with a smattering of Fed speaker snippets that largely echo what we already know. As such, it’s no surprise to see bonds coasting sideways in the prevailing range.
This wasn’t necessarily destined to be the case according to the overnight session. Weak economic data in Europe pushed EU yields sharply lower and brought US yields along for the ride. But US traders have quickly pushed yields back into the range. This is the baseline resistance level for the rest of the day, and for next week unless something big happens.
Source: Mortgage News Daily