Posted To: MBS Commentary

With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%. Today's early gains make the evidence nearly overwhelming with yields less than half a basis point away at times. With the Fed coming up this afternoon, it would only take a mildly stronger reaction to break the 1.0% floor . What happens after a break below 1.0% though? The prevailing trend implies heavier resistance around 0.97-0.98%. Specifically, the lower boundary of the "trend channel" (yellow lines below) runs through .98 today. It would require another fairly decent bond rally to get there, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. Such a move could be a blessing or a curse. If the trend keeps doing what it's been doing since August…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily