Posted To: MBS Commentary
Ah, the Thursday before a Friday jobs report–much like a Forest Gump box of chocolates. They're typically fairly boring with movement that tends to be easily eclipsed by the NFP reaction in the following day, but occasionally we see these "place-holder" Thursdays turn into "lead-off" Thursdays. In other words, the bond market may have an underlying positional bias such that yields are 100% guaranteed to be at certain levels by Friday afternoon regardless of the NFP result, based solely on the trades that traders have already decided to make before the holiday weekend. If some of those trades start coming in today, it could make for a moderately big move that offers a preview of how tomorrow may go. Last time around, we definitely had the "lead-off" type of…(read more)
Source: Mortgage News Daily
