Home schooling is the goodest thing I ever did for my two kids. Hopefully, they both learned that an inverted yield curve doesn’t automatically create, or lead to, a recession. As we approach 2024, short term rates have been higher than long term rates since 2022, and when you think of the last 10 recessions eight of the last 10 were preceded by an inverted yield curve. But now the “experts” are saying that this yield curve inversion is due to artificial reasons, namely the U.S. Federal Reserve’s actions that shifted rates, rather than more natural factors. Time will tell, and no one can eliminate business cycles, so we may have a recession (and with it, lower rates) at some point. But for now, “The U.S. economy is becoming increasingly recession resistant. State, local, and federal government spending as a percentage of GDP has risen from 29 percent in 1962 to 35 percent today. Healthcare spending has risen from 5 percent of GDP in 1962 to 18 percent in 2021. Collectively they have risen from 34 percent of GDP to 53 percent and most critically, both sectors are not particularly interest-rate sensitive.” So spoketh Dr. Elliot Eisenberg. (Today’s podcast can be found here, and this week’s is sponsored by MCT. MCT’s technology and know-how continues to revolutionize how mortgage assets are priced, locked, protected, valued, and exchanged, offering clients the tools to thrive under any market condition. Hear an interview with Lender Price’s Dustin McClelland on how lenders can upgrade or enhance their pricing technology.)
Source: Mortgage News Daily