Low Rates Will Face More Volatility Risk in Coming Weeks

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Yesterday, we discussed why rates are not actually at all-time lows. But rates are whatever they are. They’re relation to previous lows doesn’t really matter at the end of the day. Do you benefit from refinancing? Can you afford your new purchase payment? Great! Don’t worry if the rate is technically not an all-time low. I’m just on a crusade for journalistic accuracy, shouting at my own little wall over here. More important than the outright level of interest rates is the risk of volatility on the horizon. With everything the economy and financial markets have been through in 2020, the past few months have been surprisingly calm in the bigger picture–especially for the bond market (which has a direct bearing on mortgage rates). But there are several reasons we should be prepared for more…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS RECAP: MBS Defy Odds as Bond Bulls Fail For 3rd Straight Day

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBS Defy Odds as Bond Bulls Fail For 3rd Straight Day After failing back to back attempts to retake the recent sub-.72 range, 10yr yields didn't even try today. Part of the problem was a stronger Retail Sales report this morning, which had a surprisingly clear impact on the market–at least for an hour. Bonds returned to the doorstep of the previous range, bounced momentarily at 0.7207% and promptly spent the rest of the day sideways at .74+. Fortunately, MBS defied the odds and outperformed, but not for the right reasons. Bonds are still waiting to see where the chips fall between the election, stimulus, and of course the path of the pandemic both at home and abroad. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Retail Sales 1.9 vs 0.7 f'cast, 0…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: Adventures With Data, Charts, Correlations, and Trading Ranges

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Admittedly, this is less of a "day ahead" at this point and more of a "day in progress." Nonetheless, we can discuss the lay of the land as we gear up for more volatility in financial markets. Why would we expect volatility? The reasons are many. Election. The US presidential election is weeks away. This always has potential to cause volatility, and the run up to the election is currently keeping financial markets relatively more subdued. Covid at home . Covid-related news is ongoing, of course. Markets continue to show a willingness to react to significant changes in case counts, vaccine trials, new treatments, mortality, and the anticipated economic effects of all of the above. Winter is coming, and we're about to learn 'something' either way. If the fight…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Source: Mortgage News Daily

Forbearances Up Slightly After Last Week's Plunge

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Last week Black Knight reported that the beginning of October saw a decline in the number of active forbearance plans of 649,000 or 18 percent as many plans reached the end of their initial period. It was the largest single week decline since the crisis began. This week the number of loans in forbearance edged up a bit. The company reported an increase of 19,000 plans, bringing the total to just under 3 million. Despite the increase, the share of mortgages in forbearance held steady at 5.6 percent. Forbearances peaked at 4.76 million plans in late May. All investor classes saw slight upticks during the week. GSE forbearances rose by 3,000 to 1.11 million or 4.0 percent of the total portfolios and both FHA/VA and Portfolio and private label securities(PLS) forbearances increased by 8,000. This…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Source: Mortgage News Daily

Pandemic Throwing Millions into Rent, Mortgage, and Student Loan Peril

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The pandemic is endangering the credit histories of at least 30 million Americans and possibly threatening the shelter status of many of them. The Mortgage Bankers Associations’ (MBA’s) Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA) said on Friday that over 6 million households missed making rent or mortgage payments in September and 26 million individuals did not make payments on their student loans. The number of missed payments for rent and mortgage payments did decline slightly from the second quarter but 2.82 million households failed to pay their rent on time and in full in September while 3.37 million homeowners missed, delayed, or made a reduced mortgage payment. These numbers represent 8.5 percent of the renter population and 7.1 percent of homeowners. The share of student debt borrowers…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Source: Mortgage News Daily

MLO, Ops Jobs; MSR Valuation, Training, Non-QM, Retention, Tax Tools; New Jumbo Wholesaler; 2006 vs. 2019: Nothing is Forever

Posted To: Pipeline Press

What’s more important, spending money on the latest iPhone, or taking care of your body? Every Thursday we receive Initial Jobless Claims statistics, and usually on the first Friday of the month we receive a set of employment data. But who makes up these numbers? Per the most recent U.S. Census Bureau “County Business Patterns,” the 907k businesses in the Health Care and Social Assistance sector topped all others with 20 million employees and over $1.0 trillion in annual payroll. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates the sector will grow 14% from 2018 to 2028, due largely to an aging boomer population with increased health care needs. Reverse mortgages! The Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services sector saw the highest annual increase…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Source: Mortgage News Daily

No, Mortgage Rates Are NOT Actually At All-Time Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Many of today’s mortgage-related headlines are touting “new all-time lows,” but there are significant caveats. The biggest caveat would likely be the fact that the average 30yr fixed rate is actually nowhere near its previous all-time lows! So why are there so many headlines saying otherwise? Issue 1: Freddie Mac’s Weekly Rate Survey Freddie conducts the longest-running weekly mortgage rate survey in the biz. If you’re not worried about nitty gritty details or day to day movement, it’s plenty accurate and consistent. That’s why the industry and news media have grown to rely on it for a quick, rough take on mortgage rates every Thursday morning. The problem with Freddie’s survey is that it’s a quick rough take every Thursday morning. It doesn’t go into nitty gritty detail–the kind that could…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Source: Mortgage News Daily

Troubling Unemployment Numbers Eclipsed by a Strong Housing Market

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Although the housing market continues to show strength, Freddie Mac economists say there are increasingly troubling signs in the larger economy. The third quarter forecast from the company’s Economic and Housing Research Group notes an apparent stall in economic activity in early July. Even as many businesses reopened, unemployment claims continued at elevated levels, (and posted its largest one-week increase in three months last week). In mid-September claims totaled about 26 million. Although the unemployment rate declined to 7.9 percent in September, Freddie Mac says a shift from temporary to permanent unemployment and a deterioration in labor force participation signals an underlaying labor market weakness. But then there is the housing market. One of the main drivers of the quick recovery…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Source: Mortgage News Daily

MLO, Ops Jobs; Shell Wanted; Broker, Retention, Doc Products; Investors React to USDA, FHA, VA Changes

Posted To: Pipeline Press

When I grow up, I want to live in… Estonia? If you need a break, and are thinking about leaving the U.S., take a gander at some highly-ranked work from home places to live besides the United States. Election Night? Forget it. It could be “Election Month” or “Election Months” if runoffs are involved or elections contested. Despite the dedication and best efforts by the Mortgage Bankers Association and state & industry organizations, do you really think that any politician is going to be focused on mortgage or housing policy? On a micro-level, one fear that residential lenders who are part of banks have is that banks will become accustomed to expecting hefty mortgage profits. Lending veterans know that margins and volumes still will be cyclical, and without…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: New Narrative? Another Case of Europe's Influence Over US Rates

Posted To: MBS Commentary

From 2011 through the middle of 2016, the European economy, monetary system, and policy landscape had an extreme amount of influence over volatility and outright levels in the U.S. rates market. 2011-2012 = peak EU financial crisis, Greek debt drama, peripheral credit spread concerns (remember the PIIGS?), Grexit debate 2014 = The year that ECB outright asset purchases came into focus 2015 = Final approval on bond buying early in the year and a big blowout rally in EU bonds by April 2016 = Brexit helped US 10yr yields just barely break new all-time lows. All of these bullet points are highlighted on the following chart, including some non-EU-specific events such as the taper tantrum and 2018/2019's "global growth concerns." The charted lines are simply the US 10yr yield and Germany's…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Source: Mortgage News Daily