MBS RECAP: Calm Week Ends on an Even Calmer Note

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Calm Week Ends on an Even Calmer Note It's rare to see non-holidays Fridays in January be quite as underwhelming as today turned out to be. Bonds remained locked perfectly inside prevailing trends. That's a good thing in this case as it meant moderate gains for both MBS and Treasuries. Volatility risks increase next week with a bigger slate of economic data, but we'll wait to get too excited about that until it actually proves capable of moving the needle. Today's video discusses what might be required for 10yr yields to break below 1.0%. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Existing Home Sales 6.76m vs 6.55m f'cast, 6.71m prev Markit Composite PMI 58.0 vs 55.3 prev Market Movement Recap 08:35 AM Markets trading ' risk-off…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

How Long Can The Good Times Last For Housing and Rates?

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

While it wasn’t quite the biggest surprise of 2020, the strength of the housing market was one of the best. The just-released numbers for December keep the good times rolling. Leading the charge was December’s Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The annual pace wasn’t quite at the recent 15-year high seen 2 months ago, but it hasn’t really fallen since then. No complaints. If you want to see more 15-year records broken, you’ll have to rely on The Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction numbers. While not a direct measure of New Home Sales, the correlation is high (we’ll get the official sales numbers next Thursday). For now, we can bask in the warm glow of another long-term high in Housing Starts. With sales and construction numbers like this, it…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Existing Home Sales Reach Highest Levels Since 2006

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Existing home sales resumed an upward trajectory in December. After drifting lower by 2.5 percent in November, breaking a five-month streak of gains , the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales in the last month of the year rose 0.7 percent. Sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.76 million during the month, compared to 6.69 million units in November. This represented a 22.2 percent increase over the 5.53 million unit rate a year earlier. The numbers were above the 6.40 million to 6.62 million range of forecasts by analysts polled by Econoday. Their consensus was for an annual rate of 6.55 million units. Single-family home sales were also 0.7 percent higher than the previous month at an annual rate of…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Upbeat 2021 Econ Forecast From Fannie Mae

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Optimism is running high in Fannie Mae’s first Economic and Housing Outlook of the year. The company’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) team says expanding vaccination efforts, the potential of greater than previously expected fiscal stimulus, and the end of winter all “point to an economy ready to take off once COVID-19-related effects begin to subside.” The company says that economic growth probably flatlined in November and December and it revised its final GDP estimate for the year down to a negative 2.7 percent. The economy is now poised to expand, although probably not before late spring. The ESR team has raised its expectations for 2121 from 4.5 percent growth in last month’s report to 5.3 percent and by 0.4 points for 2022 to 3.6 percent. The Federal Reserve has stated it intends…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

End-of-Year Delinquencies a Challenge for 2021

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage performance understandably deteriorated over the course of 2020. Black Knight, in its “first look” at December data, noted that the year ended with 1.54 million more delinquent mortgages and 1.7 million more that were seriously delinquent than at the start, calling it “a looming reminder of the challenges facing the market in 2021 .” The situation did continue to improve as the year ended. The national delinquency rate fell 3.9 percent from November to December and the resulting rate of 6.08 percent of all active loans was the lowest since April 2020 when the financial effects of the pandemic kicked in. It is however, nearly 79 percent higher than the rate at the end of 2019. Serious delinquencies, loans 90 or more days past due but not in foreclosure, also declined, dropping by 47…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MLO Jobs; Broker, Recruiting, HELOC Products; Freddie and Fannie Compliance Reminders

Posted To: Pipeline Press

This week Joe Exotic did not receive a presidential pardon, nor did mortgage rates move much versus last week, but there are still over 16 million refinance candidates who meet broad-based eligibility criteria and could also cut their first mortgage rate by 0.75 percent or more, per Black Knight. But last night the world saw, at 21:21, the 21 st second of the 21 st minute of the 21 st hour of the 21 st day of the 21 st year of the 21 st century. How cool is that!? Instructor: “Welcome to salsa class! Who’s ready to learn how to dance?” Me, hiding a bag of tortilla chips: “Uh, there’s been a misunderstanding.” There’s no misunderstanding between CNN , Axios , the White House , the Federal Times , and the ABA Banking Journal . They concur that Dave Uejio…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Should Give Their Next Technical Signal Any Day Now

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The nature of the pandemic has made for some very mechanical and orderly market movement. The best example of this in the bond market is the "trend channel" (parallel lines marking the highs and lows, yellow lines in today's chart) we've been following in 10yr yields since the beginning of November. Smaller scale examples include several consolidation patterns (converging lines marking highs and lows, teal lines in today's chart), just like the one that's been taking shape over the past 2 weeks. This one's a bit different than the last two. On a negative note, this consolidation pattern is occurring at much higher yields, but on a plus note , it's also resting near the top of the aforementioned trend channel. The implication is that IF we can manage to get…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Retail, Correspondent Jobs; Performance, Non-QM, Sales Tools; STRATMOR Strategy Paper; DACA and FHA

Posted To: Pipeline Press

“Do y’all remember, before the internet, that people thought the cause of stupidity was the lack of access to information? Yeah, it wasn’t that.” The internet has brought a lot of change to the world, and to our industry. But we don’t need the internet to drive changes, and potential changes, in our biz. HUD has declared that it will once again back DACA mortgages. Huntington’s Rob B. asks, “Is a CRA Mandate coming for independent mortgage banks (IMBs)?” (Prompting his question is the perception that President Biden will look for opportunities to boost homebuyers and builders . Of course, if there is little inventory, or land to build on, or people to build them…) CFPB Director Kathy Kraninger, who’s term would not have ended until 2023…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Construction Surges to Highest Levels in 15 Years

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Residential construction finished out 2020 much more strongly than analysts had expected. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported significant increases in both residential permitting and housing starts in December , the second month in a row those numbers have grown. The numbers, however, took a hit in the Northeast. Permits for privately funded construction were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,709,000 units, an increase of 4.5 percent from the revised (from 1,639,000 units) rate of 1,635,000 in November. The pace of permitting in December was 17.3 percent higher than the 1,437,000 units estimated a year earlier. Econoday and Trading Economics had reported low expectations for December permits on the part of their analysts. The consensus…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: Defensive Shift is a Cause For Concern; Yields Struggling With an Important Floor

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The GA senate election shift is old news. It did the damage it was always likely to do, but bonds had a good show of support by the end of the following week. That made good enough sense considering the pandemic is driving the market and the pandemic can't be quickly defeated. But it's worth noting that the pandemic is also driving central bank policy, and when those policies are tweaked–even subtly–bonds can and will reac t. This morning's change to the ECB's PEPP is the latest example. If you didn't click the link above, the nutshell version is this: the European Central Bank made a subtle change to its pandemic relief bond buying program that COULD mean it will buy slightly less than the maximum amounts. When these programs are initially announced, markets account for…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily