MBS RECAP: Yields Give Up Early Lead But Remain Near 2-Week Lows

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Yields Give Up Early Lead But Remain Near 2-Week Lows Today ended up being about as big of a roller coaster as we could expect in the absence of any significant data, events, or market movement. In other words, there was only a 4bp trading range in 10yr yields during the day, but it felt like more was at stake at times. Reason being, the morning hours were in the process of confirming a break below the 0.87+ technical level. That would have been a nice little milestone after successfully defending the 1.0% ceiling last week, but sellers took control early. Yields spiked after the 20yr Treasury auction, and then fell in the afternoon–finally paying some attention to stock market weakness. Both MBS and Treasuries ultimately settled into ranges close to yesterday's best levels and thus close…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: Vaccine News–Once The Bond Market's Biggest Fear–Now Passes Without a Trace

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Bonds are making a case for a bigger picture bounce with 10yr yields turning a corner just before hitting the epic psychological barrier of 1.0%. More than a few traders and analysts have been vocal about a break of 1.0% being highly likely by the end of 2020, but the past 8 trading days are causing second thoughts. Vaccine-related news is center stage for this debate. It looked as if it would push yields over 1% last week, but it looks completely different this week. As of this morning, bonds barely registered a reaction to some of the best vaccine news to date. The following chart shows all three of the recent reactions to vaccine news. Today's is the smallest, and that's fairly logical considering it was only an update to Pfizer's initial announcement at the beginning of last…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

VOE, Cash Flow, Remote Work Tools; Companies Performance Mimicking Industry's

Posted To: Pipeline Press

If you had 20 million close friends, and each one owed $500k on their house, the total would be $10 trillion of mortgage debt. Coincidentally, that is how much mortgage debt is out there in the United States. (Doesn’t every MLO wish all that debt was at 4 percent!) I love headlines like, “National Association of Realtors Says Home Prices Are Rising Much Too Fast .” NAR has a powerful lobby, but it doesn’t determine house prices. And who is NAR to say something, entirely beyond their control, is too fast or too slow? The pandemic has really impacted everything, huh? Heck, had I known in March that it would be the last time I’d be in a restaurant, I would have ordered dessert! COVID has certainly jacked up the number of emails sent and the number of lunchroom and…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBA Expects 2020 Refis to Nearly Double 2019's

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA’s) November 2020 economic forecast ups the ante from its rosy October version. Its revisions are due to the strong pace of home sales and low interest rates which continue to fuel a refinancing boom. MBA has increased its prediction for total mortgage originations from the $3.175 trillion estimate in October to $3.39 trillion. This would be a 50 percent increase from the $2.25 trillion in total originations in 2019, and the highest total since 2003. Refinancing, of course, is the driver behind these numbers. By the end of the year MBA expects those originations to have increased by 91.5 percent year-over-year to $1.97 trillion, potentially the highest total since 2003. Purchasing volume has not been shoddy either. That total is expected to be the highest…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Mortgage Application Volume Pulls Back Slightly, Purchases Still Strong

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Despite a healthy upward bump in purchase applications, overall mortgage volume declined last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, dipped 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended November 13, and was down 2 percent unadjusted. The week’s results were not adjusted to account for the Veterans’ Day holiday that occurred midweek. The Refinance Index was down 2 percent from the previous week but was 98 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 69.8 percent of total applications from 70.0 percent the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 4 percent. It was 1 percent lower than the prior before adjustment but was up 26 percent…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Mortgage Rates Remain Near Recent Lows

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were little-changed today, with the average lender only microscopically better than yesterday. That means few loan seekers will notice any difference from yesterday. That leaves us in line with the low rate levels seen immediately following the election earlier this month, and that’s as low as rates have been since early August, as long as we’re talking about purchase mortgage rates. Refis continue to suffer relative to purchases due to the adverse market fee imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (rolled out by lenders at various times over the past 2 months). Today was somewhat notable due to the fact that the bond market (normally the most important driving force for mortgage rates) told a different story. Bonds suggested rates should have moved lower more noticeably. It’s…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Builder Confidence Continues to Shatter Previous Records

Posted To: MND NewsWire

For the third straight month the level of builder confidence in the new home market set a record high . The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said the Housing Market Index (HMI) it co-sponsors with Wells Fargo soared 5 points in November to 90. This is the highest level in the 35-year history of the HMI which set records of 83 in September and 85 in October. These are the only times in its history that the Index surpassed the 80-point level and is triple its level in April when the pandemic caused it to plunge. NAHB cautioned, however, that 69 percent of the survey responses were received before the results of the presidential election were called on Nov. 7. The election results and their future impacts on housing market conditions, will be more fully reflected in December’s HMI…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MLO Jobs; Income, Workflow, Customer Service Tools; Agency Personnel Changes Regardless of Salaries

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Predictions? Show me one person, a year ago, who forecast what has happened (so far) this year! (I went to see a psychic the other day. I knocked on the door and she yelled, “Who’s there?” so I left.) Lenders do their thing, regardless of what the “experts” predict. And there is certainly good news out there, in that lenders, vendors, title companies, and other “borrower-touching” companies have compressed 2-3 years of technological changes into six months, less in some cases. Somewhere in my extended family are a couple of the family’s old wooden crank telephones, always good for a curious chuckle. But anyone who uses a phone or computer should skim through these ads , with prices, for technology in the relatively recent past. Looking back at…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

MBS Day Ahead: Technical Tug-O-War Continues For Bonds

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In spite of yesterday's Moderna vaccine news, 10yr yields managed to end the day nearly unchanged. More impressively, they're heading into the current session in noticeably stronger territory–once again testing the 0.88% technical level. Breaking below this floor would afford bond bulls quite a bit more breathing room, and it would decrease the risk of an impending push up and over 1.0% (something that looked entirely possible last week). This isn't to say that closing below 0.88% is some magic pill that ensures success for bonds in the short term, but it would be another vote in favor of a generally supportive ceiling taking shape under/around 1.0%. Indeed, yields have spent MUCH more time and energy trying to break back below 0.88% in the past 4 trading days than they did attempting…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily

Surprisingly Calm Day For Mortgage Rates

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Last week, trial results from Pfizer’s covid vaccine sent shockwaves through financial markets. Stock prices and bond yields both moved decisively higher. In general, higher bond yields coincide with higher mortgage rates. Last week was no exception, but the mortgage market definitely has much more insulation than normal against bond market weakness. That means big spikes in Treasury yields have translated to smaller spikes in mortgage rates. Nonetheless, higher rates are higher rates, so it made sense to expect another reaction to this morning’s deja vu moment when Moderna’s vaccine trial results were even better than Pfizer’s. For a moment, it seemed like logic would prevail. Bonds lost ground at first, but quickly found their footing. After a few hours, both Treasuries and mortgage bonds…(read more)

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Source: Mortgage News Daily