Without commenting on the odds of any particular outcome, Thursday can’t help but fill the role of “placeholder” given the proximity of tomorrow’s big jobs report. That’s not to say bonds can’t make a move today.  Indeed, they may already be giving that a shot in early trading.  Rather, the point is data like the jobs report is what’s required to shape bigger picture trends.  If forced to comment on risks and opportunities between now and then, and at risk of stating the obvious, Tuesday’s low yields increasingly look like the bottom of the bond market’s short-term range finding expedition.
This, then, could be considered to be the new data-dependent range:
Source: Mortgage News Daily