What Jobs Report? Bring on CPI and the Fed

Bonds made it almost all week putting on a superhuman display of immunity to bad news, but Friday’s jobs report was the kryptonite.  Whether or not a trader has any criticism for volatility in the payrolls data, they still agreed on the move with 10yr yields up nearly 15bps by the close.  MBS outperformed nicely, as we were hoping they would, thus limiting the worst possible rate sheet outcomes.  In fact, we’re ending the week in better shape than the last and thoughts have already turned toward next week’s bigger ticket events (CPI on Tuesday and the Fed on Wed).  And yes, this is a “dots” meeting for the Fed… 

Econ Data / Events

Nonfarm Payrolls 

272k vs 180k f’cast, 175k prev

Unemployment Rate

4.0 vs 3.9 f’cast, 3.9 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:36 AM Much weaker after jobs data.  10yr up 13.7 bps at 4.425.  MBS down more than half a point.

11:12 AM Holding AM losses uneventfully after modest bounce.  10yr up 12.9bps at 4.417 and MBS down 3/8ths.

01:50 PM Still very little movement relative to AM losses.  MBS down 13 ticks (.41) and 10yr up 13.7bps at 4.425

03:43 PM Stick a fork in the bond market.  It’s done for this week and nothing interesting happened today after the first few minutes following NFP.  Trading levels right in line with the last update… still
Source: Mortgage News Daily